A somewhat unnerving study has suggested there is a small but significant chance that an earthquake and resulting tsunami could devastate Hawaii in the next 50 years.
Published in the Journal of Geophysical Research, the study from the University of Hawaii at Mnoa (UHM) says there is approximately a 9 percentchance of a magnitude 9 or greater earthquake hitting the Aleutian Islands (which extend west from Alaska) in the next half a century, producing a mega-tsunami that could engulf Hawaii.
A previous report suggested that a large tsunami would put more than 200,000 residents of Hawaii at risk, and cause $40 billion worth of damage. If the scenario described above did play out, people on theHawaiian islands would have about 4hours to get to safe higher ground before the tsunami struck.
The model also incorporated previous tsunamis caused by earthquakes, such as the one that hit Japan in 2011.
These are rare events, lead author Rhett Butler told Hawaii News Now. They don't happen all the time but there is a chance for them and our effort here is to try to define what that chance might be.
In 2014, Butler and his team found a pile of marine debris in a giant sinkhole that they think is evidence of a huge tsunami 9meters (30 feet) high hitting Hawaii half a millennium ago. They believe this was triggered by a magnitude 9 earthquake from the Aleutian Islands. Now, they think there is a risk of another one.
The team stress that they arent trying to cause alarm, but rather they are hoping to alert people who might be affected. However, as the study is just a mathematical model at the moment, this theory will no doubt require verification from other scientists before any firm conclusions can be drawn.
Image in text:Hawaii and the Aleutian Islands. Red and yellow arcs were considered in the probability estimates. Stars and dates show earthquakes greater than magnitude 8 pre-20th century. Butler et al
Read more: http://www.iflscience.com/environment/hawaii-could-be-risk-mega-tsunami-next-50-years
